Soludo: his brilliance and delusion

By Jonah Etufunwa

Prof. Chukwuma Soludo

I am an ardent lover of Soludo, but I have so many bottled up reasons to disagree with him for the first time this week. I also have much respect for him, for no one has a better curricula vitae than him for the position he occupies today in Nigeria.

Born brilliant, strode brilliant and appointed Governor of Nigeria’s Central Bank based on his brilliance. I stand to be corrected of this view.

It is interesting to know that Soludo is really mortal and prone to the misdeeds of lesser mortals! Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), for his academic and professorial brilliance, remains an academic colossus on mind. Nothing else! Legends have it that he never for once took second at school. He took first all the time and ended up with Grade One in his School Certificate Examination and First Class in his degree course.

We learnt he also came tops in his master’s. He always topped his class and department at any given time. A genius indeed! There was not better admiration for this enigma than his exceptional academic and professional intelligence. Everyone was dazzled by his brilliance and he started brilliantly as his Governor of Nigeria’s CBN.

From nowhere, at least, not imagined by his contemporary mortals, he conceived a novelty: Consolidation of the banking sector. He was applauded and supported by the President of Nigeria and Nigerians in general. Nothing could stop him from being perceived as a genius. And he strode the landscape as one. He really deserved it. There was no aorta of doubt on the minds of Nigerians, that the CBN Governor was not a mere mortal.

He was perceived as head and shoulder taller than all Nigerians in economic intelligence, especially in money matters. Though, not given to hero worship, I preserved a portion of my heart for honouring him alone as an extra-ordinary human, especially in my thoughts about him. He was actually great in cerebral matters. I joined others in seeing him as a financial saviour. Sometimes we delude ourselves with our thoughts, hidden from our close associates. Nothing would have stopped me from hero-worshipping Soludo, if not for my religious training. I know that nobody is perfect. We all make mistakes and Soludo would not be different from this nature of man. I am not deliberately looking for ways to denigrate the ‘wisest’ man in our midst. I simply took him for what he stands for – extra-ordinary cerebral gift to Nigeria!

My first disappointment with him was when he allowed himself to be deluded by the former president Obasanjo over the printing of coins. Before they printed those coins, I personally knew that the coins would become artifacts immediately. I knew that denominations alone, as legal tenders, would not help us control inflation. Soludo would have thought the way I thought but too much acada intelligence was making him mad. He was living by ‘book,’ that was why he created coins that could help us to have such prices as 10kobo, 50kobo and one naira denominations that could not buy anything. And yet Obasanjo and Soludo went ahead to print and distribute legal tender metals that were utterly useless and only useful for decorating our ‘centre tables.’ I knew the coins would become so even before they were printed. I could not understand why both the President and the CBN Governor could not see what I saw as a lay economist. Obasanjo was busy making life difficult for ordinary Nigerians through multiple taxations and principally by increasing the prices of Federal Government’s products, such as PHCN bills and petrol products. Prices of such things cannot be increased without other products being affected on the upward side. Such prices daily affect cost of production and yet the President and the Governor of Money (Soludo) wanted magically different from what they sowed. You cannot be fuelling inflation and at the same time dousing it. They sowed whirlwind and expected to reap peace. They wanted inflation controlled without any input from their own end. How impossible!

Another laughable policy that Soludo did not succeed implementing was the case of N20 being the highest denomination in our cash economy. With the aforementioned state of inflation, just imagine how that could only have scratched rather than solving or checkmating inflation. I just knew it could never work. May be, we would having been paying more money to transport our currency for buying things than the prices of the products themselves. What the economy needs are just three activities: One, production; two, production; three, production. ‘Africa Must Produce!’ one editor wrote some time ago in one of the dailies. Nigeria Must Produce! Productive activities would solve our economic problems, not economic theories. Economics, no doubt, is a real science, and only scientific measures can solve our problems, no just acada approaches. For example, no rhetoric can solve our bearish capital market, but once the scientific or economic forces involved are right, our woes would be past. Same solution is what our forex market needs.

I do not need to be an economist to know that the U.S.’ financial recklessness of their economy would eventually affect Nigeria. When Soludo insisted that we were insulated, I knew he was lying deliberately or he wickedly ignored the facts on the ground just to delude or soothe us. I knew he was also deluding himself. I began to doubt his professorial wisdom and acada stardom. I became afraid of the unavoidable disgrace that would soon confront him since our economy was almost dollar dependent; not only ours, but the entire world’s.

If you love somebody, you would not want evil to befall him. I did not want shame to come Soludo’s way; I didn’t have to be an economist before knowing that he was not correct. I began to doubt the practical usefulness of his unquestionable brilliance. Knowledge is wisdom in the brain (mental wisdom) but it becomes real knowledge when applied to solving problems successfully. Soludo’s acada knowledge has no benefit for us in small things, but only in one big thing – bank capitalization – that has now left our banks near empty after bloating. As a member of the country’s economic management team, I expected Soludo to be shouting that the banks were not doing the right by not financing the real sector. He did not also warn Nigeria for spending excess crude oil revenue on wasteful things, anything outside the real sector is practically wasteful. Income equals consumption plus savings. We concentrated on consumption instead of savings, which ultimately means investment. I hope Soludo would not end up an all-rounder disappointment on our financial landscape.

Finally, I share the fears of many that saving the naira is not what can bring a lasting solution to our forex problem, but still those three things: Producing, producing and producing and diversifying our earning power of foreign exchange. Think about agriculture. It would help us save money on our international food bill, feed our agro-allied industry and earn us income through exports. Someone even suggested that spending on infrastructure rehabilitation would create employment and since Nigeria does not have money for that now, then public private partnership scheme would be the answer; and it can be a catalyst. We would not depend on crude oil alone. With oil alone, it is like we are unemployed as a nation.

It is just like an unemployed man who has little savings that may ordinarily last for many weeks if spent on his daily needs and he only sees solution of his inadequacies in spending his savings to buy what he needs NOW. I think what this man needs are two: gainful employment or gainful investment and not just meeting up his present needs by blasting off his savings. Soludo’s forex solution is too simplistic and lacking true wisdom. If the 20 billion dollars are spent on forex to shore up the value of the naira, how long would we shore the naira up? Who would eventually benefit? Of course, the exporters of what we are using the forex to pay for. The exporters would produce more and employ more of their citizens and raw material producers for their export (product).

If we want to banish poverty, we must never depend on oil alone. This is not Soludo’s department, though, he should tell his master, Yar’Adua and Nigerians the truth about what should and should not be implemented.

Our only source for financing our national budget is through sale of crude oil. The income is calculated in dollars. The world’s industrial activities are experiencing a depression. The demand for oil has fallen, can we now be expecting our income from oil to remain okay? Brilliance or no brilliance cannot change our fortune unless we think about other things to sell in order to get dollars or pounds or other international currencies for financing our budget. Our budget implementation is import dependent; because we are a consuming nation. We may still be importing toothpick and handkerchiefs. Bicycle spoke is not produced here. Producing spokes would depend of iron and steel technology and availability of energy (electricity) which we do not have. Fundamentally, all we need is production, but we lack the foundation, the platform. We can only start by building from the foundation. Soludo as a brilliant should have been bemoaning all that we lack fundamentally, that are hampering his ability to control inflation and contribute to the growth of the economy.

Soludo is a man I admire so much for his grey matter, can someone help us know why he has not been telling us the truth, because I still believe he knows the truth. If he does not, I think we need to know why.

My thoughts about Soludo are even driving me nuts. Someone, please, help us to find why the genius professor of economics does not know and do simple things that are true of scientific ECONOMICS.

The tragedy of the Okada generation

The most important resource to a nation is the human capital. This is because with it other resources can be harnessed for growth and development with ease. This is why most countries the world over strive to put in place policies that will have their citizens achieve goals in life through education in the first instance, with such other opportunities that will guarantee professionalism in a chosen careers. In some cases, the state puts a tab on their growth and progress, particularly the young ones, who, in most cases, form the largest part of the population from among whom leaders emerge to administer the country in the near future.

The importance of youths made them command reasonable attention to discerning minds so much so that both governments and non-govermental organizations, world institutions like UNESCO, including those institutions that we sometimes view with suspicion and disdain as the IMF and the World Bank, gladly make provisions for the development and education of this segment of the population. Even the scripture backed this position with the Lord himself decreeing that we should not despise the children “for the kingdom of God is for such like ones.”

It is arguable that beyond the politically expedient rhetoric, this country has no plan for her youths. This is evident in the education sector that has gone comatose with no signs of something concrete and positive happening in that sector so soon. Neither is there alternative to having some semblance of what will enable our active sector of the population contribute to our development process.

In all areas of human index, this country has progressively failed to measure up, while yearly we always come up with policies that will see to it that our youth, who are supposed to be the hope of our tomorrow, are further pushed down the rung of the ladder of poverty and deprivation. If we are not increasing prices of very essential items that will ensure that few factories gasping for breath are finished up and worsen the unemployment situation, as was the case with Obasanjo of the better forgotten era, we will be engaging in bizarre activities on the very day of the new year thus ensuring that Nigerians begin the new year on a sad and confusing note. It is Nigerian.

At the start of 2009, we all woke up to be confronted by a new decree from The Federal Road Safety Commission (FRSC), compelling ‘Okada Riders’ and their passengers to wear crash helmet by way of guaranteeing safety of the head in case of accident. And the Lagos state authorities had since latched on this to collect the revenue it believes is due it, asking operators of Okada to come and procure it from the state at a cheap rate upon presentation of a tax receipt. Smart idea.

While not against the FRSC intentions, and particularly, not against Lagos State for collecting its taxes, something that must be done by any one who earns an income, I am worried about our legitimizing the use of Okada as a means of commercial transport with all the health and social implications. I am also wondering if the use of Okada is allowed in our carriage laws as one for commercial purpose.

What I can not understand is the decision to reduce the value of our youths who struggled to go through hell that our higher institutions represent to graduates only to be condemned to Okada riding. Worst still is the fact that the state is not thinking of how best to engage these young vibrant ‘hands productively other than to expose their lives to avoidable danger as in riding Okada along with all the health implications.

Often we promote policies that help run other economies to our own disadvantage as in the rush for crash-helmet. While the manufacturers in Asian countries are smiling to the bank with money being milked from Nigeria, our factories are groaning under very unfriendly and hash economic environment as a result of the nation’s inability to get its bearing right. It seems we have chosen to remain an import dependent country and remain a dumping ground perpetually.

Nothing seems to work here. Not when the presidency has given up on NEPA by budgeting for generators for 2009, an amount that looks very scandalous. The states and local governments are yet to make public their provisions for energy power for 2009.

The fact that some of our citizens are dead on account of inhaling fumes from the generating sets imported from our new found friends in Asia does not worry our President nor did he see it as a motivating factor to compel to act on PHCN. No.

We must continue groping endlessly in search of an Eldorado that we did not plan for in 2020, a mere 11 years away.

Obudu Ranch, Another Bermuda Triangle?

The Hausa/Fulani aircraft engineer, who had been lamenting the death of Nigeria Airways at the hands of military and civilian ex-presidents in some our past editions, is now here lamenting the sheer complacency that had led to two air-crashes en route Obudu Ranch, Cross River State. “This reminds one of Bermuda Triangle…,” he says.  Jonah Etufunwa reports the chat between FORTUNE & CLASS Weekly and the retired engineer.

 

Is Obudu Ranch, now a kind of Bermuda Triangle?

Out of sheer complacency, we are creating one. Planes do not fly in the sky (in the void) Take-off and landing of any plane go with some fundamentals: predicting the weather, the control tower, aerial navigation, etc. For safe flight (take-off and landing), all the fundamentals are non-negotiable.

Do our airline operators, civil and military observe these fundamentals?

To their best, they do, because they value their lives and that of the passengers. Mind you, the first law in aviation is safety, like we used to say in school of aviation. There are brave young pilots; there are no brave old pilots’

What do you mean?

You can’t defy nature. The mind may be  willing, but the reflex may not be there because of age. In spite of modern technology, man has to be in the cockpit for passenger confidence to be there.

At what age should a pilot retire, does it mean it is the younger the better?

Medicine and good living have improved life-span from 60 to 65 now…

How do all these affect the two aviation tragedies at Obudu Ranch?

Ours is a need neglected

What need had been neglected at Obudu Ranch?

Obudu is nature’s beauty charming the elite, yet like several other airstrips, the necessary things have not been done. And this negligence has proven expensive. Cream of our generals lost their lives to this national odious negligence.

Were the aviation professionals not aware of these facts before the ill-fated flight of the generals from Abuja to Obudu?

Our generals were gathered from all over the country at Abuja and finally, Makurdi. The military air-flight operators were aware. But you see, in Nigeria, orders from above sometimes would demand you doing the impossible. And familiarity can breed contempt.

What do you mean?

Here, presumptuous familiarity with the weather can just be misleading. In spite of all the instrumentations in the aircraft, bravery and acumen of the flight group, God’s mercy, often save the day, but it wasn’t so with the two tragedies at Obudu; these incidents make it look like Bermuda Triangle where anything on air or sea disappears without trace at this spot. The ability to find way around the skies, pilots need to know their position and their direction. Finding direction using simple magnetic compass, is easy and there is, at least, one of these on every flight deck. Other kinds of aircraft use gyroscope (rotating wheel, the axis of which is free to turn in any direction and which can be set to rotate in any place independently of forces tending to change the position of the axis).

The modern aircraft compasses are complex and highly efficient. You see, finding position is more difficult for a pilot than finding direction, hence the need for complex aids on the ground to air.

What went wrong with the generals’ flight?

The pilot must have flown there severally without mishaps. You see, oldest and simplest form of aerial navigation is still used by pilots of light aircraft that depends on ground recognizable landmarks. The pilot pilots his track on the map before take-off and using his compass, will simply fly in the right direction.

Knowing his speed can enable him calculate when he should fly over certain landmarks and so he can check his progress.

But wind, carrying the aircraft off course, or possibly causing sudden speed ups of slowdowns, can upset such simple navigation. However, by relating to last known position, to the direction he has flown, than the speed, the pilot is able to determine an approximate position several times during the course of the flight.

This then creates a kind of circle called ‘circle of uncertainty’ whose radius is said to be about ten per cent of the distance flown since the last landmark. A seasoned captain in that ill-fated air-flight, who must have flown that route severally, must have encountered adverse weather phenomenon of some sort that is avoidable if only radar coverage was accorded that air-strip.

Was lack of radar coverage a cause of the air-crash?

Absolutely!

Right now, is there radar coverage at Obudu Ranch?

There are several air-strips nationwide without radar coverage, but the potential of Obudu Ranch, should accord it that little privilege.

Is radar coverage financially prohibitive that Nigeria cannot afford it?

This only reminds me of a statement created to Collin Powell that ‘Nigerians are basically scammers.’ You’ll recall that N300billion was budgeted for road repairs sometime ago, but only a 100 and something billion was eventually released. A case of neglect on the part of government to see that our roads are repaired! What happens on the ground in Nigeria also happens in the air, because we have lost value for human life; which is really tragic.

Talking about negligence of our roads, do you think Ore to Benin Road, does not need an urgent declaration of state of emergency?

It’s like something is wrong with us black people south of the Sahara. We’re caged by land, see and air. And we cannot develop without ease of transportation in those areas. Talking about air, where is Air Afrique, Ghana Airways, Cameroun Airways and Nigeria Airways. In spite of the endowed human and natural resources of the respective nations, such vital colonial legacies could not be sustained, let alone be improved upon. Glaring economic trapping by seas, land and air, in whose interest? Certainly, not national interest!  Surreptitiously, the Nigerian National Shipping Line eventually disappeared, and to date, Nigeria Railway is on the verge too. They all died at the hands of civil war heroes who would have appreciated transport system without which they would not have won the war. They killed the system with their own economic warfare against Nigerians. IBB with his SAP; Obj with his belt-tightening as military head of state and with his reforms as a democratically elected president with tacit backing of IBB, both contributed to our present economic malaise.