STOCK MARKET REBOUND…WACTH OUT BEFORE YOU INVEST

The excitement returned to the Nigerian stock market last week when in two days in a roll the market recorded gains that had become foreign to a market that seems to be determined for a southern movement since March this year. For the first time in several weeks, the protracted decline in the measurement of performances of the market moved northward to the delight of investors and all of a sudden the scenario changed from a market saturated with stocks to one characterised by scarcity of stocks as investors desperate bids to buy certain shares were rebuffed by unavailability. Market analysts observed that volume of shares on offer dropped significantly, suggesting a possible retraction from selling, as investors hope for further price appreciation and the bid to purchase shares took an upturn indicating a possible restoration of investors’ confidence.

 

Some more perspective market watchers argued that the market is not yet an all comer affair. Those that offered to speak with FORTUNE & CLASS Weekly said they strongly believe that the market can for now be described as the players market…a market dominated by institutional investors and stock brokers. Private investigations conducted indicated that most small to medium investors wishing to join in the share buying fray so as to profit from the rock bottom prices of many of the now highly undervalued stocks were left in the lurch with bids unfulfilled.

 

Latest news in the market informed that the new momentum driving the market may not be unconnected with the early bird initiative of some commercial banks that have quickly exploited the opportunities offered about the extension of tenor for credit facilities for margin trading and the 360 days elongation of the Central Bank of Nigeria’s expanded discount window.

 

The CBN’s new policy on discount window liberalises access to funds by commercial banks and also extends the repayment tenor of funds borrowed from the CBN through the discount window.

 

A market source confided that some of these early starter banks had provided funds for the purpose of shares purchase to stockbrokers, of course with a proviso for the preferences of shares to be purchased.

This, according to FORTUNE & CLASS source influenced the sudden liquidity position of the market. In light of this, another market player has suggested that small to medium size investors should be very careful not to get their fingers burnt in the supposed reawakening of the market.

 

I can tell you that great opportunities are on offer in the market right now with otherwise fundamentally strong stocks been priced at low price. But as the market seemingly embarked on a rebound, small to medium size investors should be wary of falling into a regretful pit. I want to suggest that investors take note of the following: Nobody is sure at the moment if the market has completely bottomed out. As things stand, institutional investors are engaged in what is called fishing the bottom market and i can tell you that this is an herculean task, because the upturn following a decline is often short lived and results in a continued price decline and hence a loss of capital for investors that purchased stocks during a misperceived or fake market bottom.

 

“Besides, nobody can tell for certain that the market will not revert to the bearish swing again as a result of speculators taking profit from the marginal capital appreciation enjoyed by some of the stocks that gained last week. And no one is sure that a small time investor will get his order for shares purchase effected by his or her stockbroker.”

WONDER BANKS TALE OF WOES IN KADUNA

Still grappling with the suitable strategy to refund thousands of investors money trapped in 38 so called wonder banks in Lagos State and other parts of South West Nigeria, another rash of failed investment schemes is in the making in Kaduna State.

Some variants of failed investment schemes in Lagos and other states in South West Nigeria have found operating havens in Northern States after throwing thousands into desperation on the heel of the close down of their operations by the Securities and Exchange Commission. According to reports from Kaduna State, some of these operators set up shops and had successfully drawn participants to their schemes with promises of high returns through forex trading and fixed odds.

The first of such operators to take to their heels are those behind Gold Trust International. The operational mode of Gold Trust International has close resemblance to the banished operators in Lagos. Payments to the scheme are to be made directly into a designated bank account. In the specific case of Gold Trust International, accounts were operated in BankPHB and Skye Bank. 

To participate, investors are to buy tons with one ton priced at N10,000 with a reward of N22,500 with the highest ton of 500 priced one million naira with a return of N2,400,000. The ton in Kaduna can easily translate to the slots sold by the schemes operators in Lagos. Reward are to be paid after eight to 10 operational weeks, just as it was promised in the Lagos and other South West schemes.

 Investigations have, however, revealed that the operators in Northern Nigerian cities like Kaduna have become smarter. Rather than wait till the bubble burst for the scheme and most likely get arrested, as soon as the operational weeks were getting near, they closed shop and took to their heels. Most of the investors that participated in the scheme are simply left confused.

As things stand, it may seem that the Securities and Exchange Commission have been caught napping despite its exposure to the way the schemes operated in Lagos and other South West States. It may even become more difficult to refund investors in Kaduna State because there are no accounts to be frozen with investors being hopeful of a refund based on the money retrieved from the bank accounts of various operators as it is being expected in Lagos. The worrying fact is that the operators in Kaduna and other parts of the North had cleared their bank accounts and flee with their loots.

Does this mean that the SEC does not have a monitoring that would be proactive enough to locate and truncate the operations of these wonder banks before they start defrauding people?     

“It is the responsibility of the Securities and Exchange Commission to monitor the investment community and be alert to the flourish of any form of investment scheme that does not conform to the requirements of the regulatory authorities.” A capital market operator said in response to the growing fear of the fraudulent activities of wonder bank operators that had found easy preys among many investment minded Nigerians in Kaduna State.” A capital market operators responded

“When there is a massive number of victims of illegal investment schemes as happened last year in Lagos and other part of south west Nigeria, my conclusion is that the Securities and Exchange Commission has not been up and doing in constantly monitoring the environment. Part of the law asserts that any form of scheme involving money and monetary reward for participation must be registered with the Commission, you can ask what effort the Commission staff have made to probe the activities of these schemes which products are usually brazenly advertised in newspapers and publicized through posters and banners in urban cities like Kaduna.”

When Fortune and Class Weekly checked with the Commission office, Mr. Oloyi, the Commission’s spoke person was not available, however, an official who refused to be named said the Commission is yet to receive any form of complaint relating to the activities of wonder banks in Kaduna State.