HOW TO PROTECT YOUR INVESTMENT IN BEARISH MARKET

By West Africa Capital Market School

After having reflected on the fact that there is now little doubt that the Nigeria Stock Market is in the midst of a bear run and that the bear would dominate the market over a long period, experts at the West African School of Capital Market, have offered to avail capital market operator the appropriate trading strategies for the bearish market.

“Economic fundamentals do not support a swift return to an upward price trend,” the experts noted in a dispatch to operators and investors. “With oil hovering in the low $40s, there is precious little money flowing from the public sector unless of course there are draw downs from dedicated accounts to fund some sort of large scale infra-structural investment and even this will take some time to trickle through based on emergent large bets against the local currency.”

The experts highlighted eight broad approaches to managing clients’ portfolio for stockbrokers.

1. Avoid investment diversification. Diversification is a great idea in good markets as it cuts down market and sector risk. However, in a bear market, the problem is with the broad market. The broader your selling of low performers, and concentrating your investments in fewer stocks that have shown the best performance, is the way to go. Your risk is no longer corporate performance but low confidence in the overall market and so it does not make sense to be broadly represented.

2. Help clients identify and preserve core capital – you will have to trace client investments by contribution/performance to identify core capital. Let clients know that you are focused on ensuring that they remain “in the game” and are positioned for a market rebound when it eventually comes.

3. Review your website and its contents to reflect the new realities and change research recommendations from “buy’ “sell” “hold” to a “preserve”, “growth” and “aspire” type recommendations. Preserve stocks will provide growth and income necessary to preserve core capital and maintain lifestyles. Growth will beat the overall index and Aspire is for long term gains when the market picks up. Conservative clients may choose to start out with 50 per cent Preserve, 40 per cent Growth and 10 per cent Aspire and then mechanistically adjust the portfolio later.

4. Shift emphasis from selling stocks to financial planning and wealth management if you have the skills for these. Financial planning is far more defensive than wealth management which requires the identification of non-financial wealth and the setting up of the right trust structures.

5. Be wary of new investment types that you don’t fully understand. The property market, for instance, will in all probability self correct especially at the high end where oversupply and tighter bank credit is now becoming an issue. If you are just getting into property come in at the middle and low end. Avoid the Lekki-Epe axis by all means.

6. If you choose to bet against the naira, do so in an intelligent way and realize that dollar rates can crash if government so desires. You need to get an inside track on just what government thinking is. A strong dollar will cut imports in the medium term and do long term good to the reserves but this strategy might go horribly wrong. We have to wait and see.

7. Keep your people engaged as much as you can. The obvious reaction is to slash and cut and sometimes this may be necessary but rather stay positive and prepare for the bull market because it will come back and for a fairly sustained period too. This means lighter more qualified and educated personnel and wise investments in scalable technology. If you are going to sell optimism abroad then sell it at home too and stay on message.

8. How do you know when the market is recovering? You will need to get some of your people busy on creating and maintaining the A/D Line of the NSE All share. Each day deduct the number of stocks gaining from stock shedding value and graph the resultant values. This will show clearly when the broad market begins to recover.

Technically, the market is in base formation right now with small gains being matched by exits/loss capping. Traditionally, base formation is followed by a sharp and sustained movement to the up or downside. You can estimate this by looking carefully at the volume on up days and the volume on down days. The whole idea is to cancel out the noise being generated by the overall index to see where recovery is likely to begin from.

The other option to these suggestions is to do nothing and hope for the best. While hope might be a laudable trait it is certainly not an advised business strategy. We believe that the market is transiting from high volatility/high gain frontier market status to a more sustained emerging market growth type of market. Such transitions are always painful but unavoidable,” the experts submitted.

Investors Accuse Stanbic-IBTC, Chapel Hill Of Fraud In Starcom Private Placement

A row is in the brew in the community of investors, especially, among those that bought into the private placement of Starcomms Plc last year. At the centre of the uproar are two issuing houses to the shares of Starcomms Plc, Chapel Hill Denham and Stanbic-IBTC.

Mr. Adebayo, one of the investors that bought the private placement of Starcomms Plc observed in a fit of frustration that it is very evident that “Starcomms Plc Private Placement” has become the epitome of “fraud.”

“The Placement of 4.95 billion shares, which opened and closed on 3rd June 2008 at a price of N13:00 appeared so attractive to investors at that time as it was over-subscribed,” Adebayo recalled.

Apparently angered at the down-turn of the investment, Adebayo explained that: “The projection in the placement memorandum says that the company will declare a loss of N197 million at the end of 2008 financial year end. Unfortunately, the company declared a loss after tax of N1.014 billion in the second quarter and N2.149 billion in the just released third quarter result.”

Starcomms Plc was listed at N13.56 on Monday, 14th July, 2008, between then and now, the price of the share had slid to a low of N3.86.

“In fact, the price dropped consistently to N7.46 less than two months after listing,” Adebayo opined. “The question to ask now is during that period, who was selling since most investors that bought shares during the private placement still had certificates that were unverified. Could it have been the original owners dumping on new investors? Can someone please explain why the variance between the forecast and the actual result declared is so staggering? Was money being laundered? What happened to the proceeds of the placement? How much expansion has the company embarked upon since the placement?” Adebayo queried.

Another investor frontally accused the two issuing houses to Starcomms placement, StanbicIBTC and Chapel Hill Denham, a capital market operator that was recently selected as one of the market makers for the Nigerian Stock Exchange. Concerned investors argued that the two issuing houses lent their brand names to be exploited by Starcomms to defraud them.

“The placement was actually successful because Starcomms Plc leveraged on the good name and credibility of Stanbic IBTC Bank Plc and Chapel Hill Advisory Partners. But looking at the whole situation closely, it seems there is more to what we can see. It’s so obvious that Starcomms’ goal from the word go was to defraud the public,” an investor submitted.

“Another question begging for an answer is the role of the two issuing houses in this? Or did Lababidi/Starcomms Plc (Chief Maan Labadidi is the Chairman of the board of Starcomms Plc) act alone?” Adebayo asked. While trying to establish a connection and possible connivance to defraud investors, Adebayo questioned the appointment of Mr. Wale Edun, Chairman of the board of Chapel Hill as a non-Executive Director of Starcommc Plc.

“I want to question the connection between the sudden appointment of the Chairman of Chapel Hill Advisory (Mr. Wale Edun) as a non-Executive Director of Starcomms Plc? Have the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) been asking any questions? How have the professional parties to the placement been able to comply with post-listing compliance requirements? Why are the regulatory bodies keeping mute about this great injustice to investors?” Adebayo queried.

Giving further revelations of the intentions of the Chairman of Starcomms to approach the capital market to raise funds for another company that he has interest in, Adebayo said:

“We hear that the same Lababidi now wants to bring another company to the market (Supreme Flourmill Ltd); this only shows that this individual thinks we are all fools in Nigeria. Please beware of this offer,” Adebayo warned other investors.

Commenting on what investment in Starcomms had turned to, Mr. Ajisafe, another investor opined:

“This is a serious matter and I have decided to sensitise everyone on my list thereto. This is, no doubt, a huge fraud and I am of the opinion that the SEC and NSE should stand indicted in the whole affair! Also, the two issuing houses, I believe, have an explanation to make to unsuspecting investors because investors relied on the strength of their analyses to buy the Starcomms offer. This is shameful and I submit that the matter be investigated and all those found to be culpable be treated in line with the IST sanctions. They are no better than Madoff! Moreover, investors should be wary of issues by the concerned issuing houses (Chapel Hill and StanbicIBTC),” Ajisafe submitted.

Another investor said of the suspicion of collaboration to rip investors on the Starcomms’ private placement.

“It is amazing what our corporate gurus are doing to stay on top of the ladder, gone were the days when our industrialists gave to charity, now our so called industrialists have board meetings and make strategies on how to use their companies to defraud the masses. We are all talking about Madoff but oblivious to the presence of individuals perpetrating worse atrocities right here in Nigeria. We all know that hedge funds are not regulated, and that probably explains why they are able to get away with all they do. How do we justify or indeed explain the flagrant act of fraud against the public in a regulated market? Starcomms came into the market to raise capital, many unsuspecting investors rushed at it, expecting high returns on their investments; it is a pity that it is now a different story entirely. It is obvious that being a politician is not the only way to “rush” up the ladder of wealth; the capital market is an untapped goldmine to fraudulently enrich people who are influential in the business and financial sectors, thanks to our Indian “friend.”

In a statement made available to Fortune&Class Weekly by officials of Chapel Hill Denham, one of the issuing houses to the Starcomms private placement, the issuing house noted that “several investors never read the PPM or all the documentation made available at the time of the placement and many bought through brokers and friends, who were among those invited and never actually saw any documentation and never understood that it was sold as a growth stock, which would make a loss in 2008 (albeit, a smaller loss than we expect to see for 2008), a profit in 2009 and pay dividend in 2010.”

Chapel Hill Denham further asserted in the statement that, “What essentially has happened is that a completely unforeseen heavy subsidy led competition by Visafone and Telkom Multilinks, has meant Starcomms spending about N2 billion more on subsidies than was projected. Essentially, a line with a handset costs about $45 each and it was being sold at N10 each. Starcomms board and management felt that it did not yet have the scale from a subscriber perspective at 1.2million gross subscribers, to stay out of this battle for subscribers.”

The statement further explained that Starcomms had over the years to over 2.5 million gross subscribers, higher than the business plan but at a hefty cost.

“This subscriber’s base will be beneficial this year and beyond, as you can imagine that over two million subscribers spending about $15 per month should generate revenue of about $350 million in 2009. This is not a business in distress by any circumstances,” the Chapel Hill Denham statement observed.

The management of Chapel Hill Denham also explained that contrary to the rumour being spread, the founders, the Lababidis actually increased their holding during the private placement, spending about $17million directly and indirectly, through their other businesses.

“The only shareholders who sold during the placement were the two private equity firms, Actis and ECP, for whom the funds they invested from had come to the end of their life and had to return the money to their investors and partners. All of these were disclosed to investors in the private placement,” the statement noted.

No official of Stanbic-IBTC was available for comment.

FRUSTRATION SETS IN FOR COMMANDCLEM INVESTMENT SCHEME’s INVESTORS

For expectant investors that had invested sums ranging between N20,000 and N1million before June 19 2008 in the Commandclem Social Security Scheme, it seems the promise of the wind fall from their investment in the scheme is taking too long to materialize. Those that spoke with FORTUNE&CLASS WEEKLY said the wait for the conclusion of the court process that will enable the operators of the scheme start paying them is becoming frustrating.

The story behind the wealth making potentials of the Commandclem scheme is quite interesting. Protagonists of the scheme market it to intending investors as the ultimate path to escaping poverty through registering to become a patentee of a special paint product invented by a Nigerian way back in the 1980s or 1990s, in truth, non of the marketers can be specific about the date of the invention. By registering in the scheme, the investor is said to become a co-patentee to the supposed inventor of the product, a man named King Clement Uwemediimo.

Registered patentees, according to the scheme’s marketers, would be positioned to earn a life time monthly allowance of N30,000. Even after the death of the patentee, his or her offspring would be entitled to the monthly payment. There are other categories in the scheme differentiated by registration fee. The highest possible class in the patentee category is the Knight. A patentee qualifies to this category on paying a registration fee of N4,000,000. The promised benefits to a patentee in this category can’t all be listed, but it include lifetime monthly earning of N300,000, constant contract jobs and holidays in exotic places around the world.

The promises are quite impressive. But the downside is that benefitting from the impressive promises of the scheme is tied to the success of a court case. According to the marketers, King Uwemediimo had sued Mobil Nigeria Unlimited to court for patent right infringement. Is said that Uwemediimo had sold the right of the product, a special paint with which crude oil tanks in the ocean are painted so as to preserve the tanks from corrosion by the salty ocean water. The demand of Uwemediimo, the marketers said is a sum of $39.3billion. However, perhaps to make the offer more juicer, some marketers quote some more humongous figures like $67 billion or $8.7 trillion depending on the marketer selling pitch.

Suddenly, an industry seemed to spring up around the Commandclem scheme at about November 2007 when it was made public that the an Akwa Ibom High Court was going to sit in the Nigerian Consulate in New York to hear witnesses from Mobil on the patent right infringement.

A group of young men must have smelt the opportunity in the Commandclem court case. An organized campaign was initiated to market conclusion of the scheme as an investment.

The first sales line of the marketer is that an interested investor must be registered with the scheme before the court’s final ruling on the matter on June 19 2008. The second sales line is that Commandclem is favoured to win the case no matter the odd. The third pitch is that the court will order the all oil producing companies in Nigeria to calculate two dollars on each barrel of crude oil produced in Nigeria since the invention was allegedly sold to Mobil, and that, the market added up would amount to trillions of dollars. It is from this judgment sanction that participants would be paid their life entitlements.

The marketing pitch, apparently worked. Advertisement jingles were placed on radio programmes, while alleged representatives of the scheme even went around television stations for awareness campaign. Newspapers advertisement spaces were also bought to announce the scheme that would turn Nigerian poors into overnight rich people that would share in the humongous back log of patent fee that would be paid to Uwemediimo. Even on the internet, blogs and sites were dedicated to invite investors to register before the final judgment of June 19. Offices were opened nationwide for people to register.

Not a few Nigerians were taken in by the pitch. FORTUNE&CLASS OBSERVED a high traffic of people in offices of the scheme in Lagos State. In fact, one Okaiwele Austin requested on his blog site that interested investors should pay N5000 into his account before he would post contact details of the scheme operators to them. The officials of the scheme warned that no registration would be allowed after the June 19 2008 final judgment, this further fueled the high traffic.

But now, the cold reality of some of the unreal expectations of the scheme may be dawning on the investors. In the first place, the decision of the court can not be contemplated by any party to the suit. While it has been confirmed that there is truly, indeed, a court matter pending on the subject of a patent, the ruling of the court case is that of no other person than the judge. And the ruling can favour either Commandclem or Mobil. Besides, even if it is assumed that Commandclem wins the case, the cost sanction against Mobil may not be as huge as expected. In fact, if the court sanctioned Mobil in the cost expected by the Commandclem marketers, it would be the first of such in the world.

Anyway, the situation report at the moment is that expectant investors in the scheme back in 2007 are becoming frustrated over waiting for so long and to make it even bad, nobody can assure them of how much longer they are going to wait. The court that was expected to sit and make its ruling on the matter on June 19 did not sit because the judge was absent. The case was said to be adjourned to July 22. Again, on the adjourned date nothing was heard of the suit. Now, in November, not even the marketers of the scheme can provide updates on the court process and when it would be disposed of.

For a scheme that is tied to the judgment of the court, investors have started grumbling aloud that they were cheated into believing that the case was near conclusion before they registered but now that some of them have their money tied down to the scheme for more than a year, they are saying it seems they were hoodwinked.

PS: It has been brought to our notice that an aggressive advertisement of  Commandclem Social Security Scheme is ongoing in popular media houses in Ogun State, Nigeria, therefore, we believe it is our duty to advise the investing public to look before they leap. Thank you.

WONDER BANKS TALE OF WOES IN KADUNA

Still grappling with the suitable strategy to refund thousands of investors money trapped in 38 so called wonder banks in Lagos State and other parts of South West Nigeria, another rash of failed investment schemes is in the making in Kaduna State.

Some variants of failed investment schemes in Lagos and other states in South West Nigeria have found operating havens in Northern States after throwing thousands into desperation on the heel of the close down of their operations by the Securities and Exchange Commission. According to reports from Kaduna State, some of these operators set up shops and had successfully drawn participants to their schemes with promises of high returns through forex trading and fixed odds.

The first of such operators to take to their heels are those behind Gold Trust International. The operational mode of Gold Trust International has close resemblance to the banished operators in Lagos. Payments to the scheme are to be made directly into a designated bank account. In the specific case of Gold Trust International, accounts were operated in BankPHB and Skye Bank. 

To participate, investors are to buy tons with one ton priced at N10,000 with a reward of N22,500 with the highest ton of 500 priced one million naira with a return of N2,400,000. The ton in Kaduna can easily translate to the slots sold by the schemes operators in Lagos. Reward are to be paid after eight to 10 operational weeks, just as it was promised in the Lagos and other South West schemes.

 Investigations have, however, revealed that the operators in Northern Nigerian cities like Kaduna have become smarter. Rather than wait till the bubble burst for the scheme and most likely get arrested, as soon as the operational weeks were getting near, they closed shop and took to their heels. Most of the investors that participated in the scheme are simply left confused.

As things stand, it may seem that the Securities and Exchange Commission have been caught napping despite its exposure to the way the schemes operated in Lagos and other South West States. It may even become more difficult to refund investors in Kaduna State because there are no accounts to be frozen with investors being hopeful of a refund based on the money retrieved from the bank accounts of various operators as it is being expected in Lagos. The worrying fact is that the operators in Kaduna and other parts of the North had cleared their bank accounts and flee with their loots.

Does this mean that the SEC does not have a monitoring that would be proactive enough to locate and truncate the operations of these wonder banks before they start defrauding people?     

“It is the responsibility of the Securities and Exchange Commission to monitor the investment community and be alert to the flourish of any form of investment scheme that does not conform to the requirements of the regulatory authorities.” A capital market operator said in response to the growing fear of the fraudulent activities of wonder bank operators that had found easy preys among many investment minded Nigerians in Kaduna State.” A capital market operators responded

“When there is a massive number of victims of illegal investment schemes as happened last year in Lagos and other part of south west Nigeria, my conclusion is that the Securities and Exchange Commission has not been up and doing in constantly monitoring the environment. Part of the law asserts that any form of scheme involving money and monetary reward for participation must be registered with the Commission, you can ask what effort the Commission staff have made to probe the activities of these schemes which products are usually brazenly advertised in newspapers and publicized through posters and banners in urban cities like Kaduna.”

When Fortune and Class Weekly checked with the Commission office, Mr. Oloyi, the Commission’s spoke person was not available, however, an official who refused to be named said the Commission is yet to receive any form of complaint relating to the activities of wonder banks in Kaduna State.