Cancellation of uniform year-end saves banking sector …bank stocks now best buys – experts

As published in the Sept. 28, Iss. 33. Site Admin. ol’Victor Ojelabi

The idealism of Central Bank governor, Prof. Chukuma Soludo, did transform the nation’s banking industry. From a motley crew of pretender-financial institutions, Prof. Soludo presented to the nation on the first day 2006 a manageable community of 25 banks that have passed his test of the N25billion mark.

On the attainment of this feat, believed before 01-06-2006 to be an impossibility, the Nigerian banking public celebrated the Professor of Economics and, of course, got inebriated with the promise of greater things to come from the banking sector. Banking experts caught on to propelling excitements steaming from the office of the CBN governor, “with more money from consolidation, banks were going to drive the active sector” was the chorus.

The industry did make a jump to new levels of growth, Nigerian banks, have since 2006 been involved in financing billion plus naira projects in the hefty oil and telecommunications sectors, that was unheard of in the pre-consolidation era. Personally, I am enamoured with the gleam of glamour and high tech platforms on which Nigerian banks dispensed financial services to the public.

The banking consolidation certainly has an impact in galvanising a trendier banking culture and it shows in the lifestyles of bankers and their institutions that have become celebrities in the public place with each competing for media attention in a rather morbid claim to the nation’s number one ranking in the banking sector. So much that Nigerians were regaled with figures of banks that had crossed the one billion dollar shareholders’ fund, some other countered on their multi-trillion naira asset and all that. For the naïve watcher of the banking sector, the easy conclusion would be a sector that is vibrant on all measures of indices. The investing public was apparently taken in, for good reasons too, banks had become the main drivers of the Nigerian Stock Exchange, accounting for the biggest chunk of trading activities in the market in terms of volume and value.

All these together must have emboldened the CBN governor to push farther his idealistic template to ensure a banking industry that can compete with any other across the world on credibility of operations and status ranking in translating turnover to profit. Unfortunately, this altruistic illusion was the undoing of the CBN governor. Soon after he announced that the nation’s banks must all adopt the same December year-end, all manners of strange things started happening.

The same year-end implies that each bank would stand alone in presenting report of activities to investors. This would provide the basis for comparing the profile of banks against one another and of course, lend credit to claims by each bank.

Then a state of near stultification of the ordinary banking operations commenced. Banks started a desperate hunt for deposits to shore their vaults in the run up to the year-end deadline. To secure these deposits, banks were ready to obligate themselves to very high interest rate. There were clear signals that the economy was grinding to a halt as banks lending activities were thrown to the back offices in preference for deposits drive.

The inter bank rate, the rate at which banks lend themselves money sprinted beyond the year on year average, there were suspicion that banks needed to use this borrowed funds from other banks to make their books look good.

The signs of trouble were noted in the CBN Quarterly report but not many gave much thought to it. The report notes that “With tight liquidity conditions in the money market, following the upward review of the MPR from 9.0 to 9.5 per cent in December, 2007, deposit money banks (DMBs) accessed the CBN lending facility more frequently to square up short-term positions. Consequently, a cumulative sum of =N=8,658.91 billion was granted to DMBs on overnight basis in the review period, compared with =N=523.91 billion in the preceding quarter.”

The report further asserts that “available data indicated mixed developments in banks’ deposit and lending rates in the first quarter of 2008. With the exception of the average savings deposits and seven-day savings rates which, fell by 0.26 and 0.16 percentage points to 2.97 and 5.38 per cent, respectively, all other rates on deposits of various maturities rose from a range of 7.75 9.90 per cent in the preceding quarter to 9.48 10.71 per cent. On the other hand, the average prime and maximum lending rates fell by 0.44 and 0.07 percentage points to 16.05 and 18.17 per cent, respectively. Consequently, the spread between the weighted average deposit and maximum lending rates widened from 15.01 percentage points in the preceding quarter to 15.20 percentage points. On the other hand, the margin between the average savings deposit and maximum lending rates narrowed from 10.77 percentage points in the preceding quarter to 10.31 percentage points. The increase in interest rates during the review quarter was attributed to the upward review of the MPR in December, 2007. At the inter-bank call segment, the weighted average rate, which was 8.25 in the preceding quarter, rose to 10.30 per cent, reflecting the liquidity squeeze in the inter-bank funds market.”

The CBN was rather being merely academic with its reasons for the lending rates’ differentials and liquidity squeeze, by the time the reports for subsequent quarters are made public the spiking of credit relationship between banks on one hand and with the CBN on the hand, would tell of the tension that would have run the banking sector aground if the CBN had gone ahead with same year-end policy.

The unusual tempo of activities in the sector eventually got the CBN scared of the dire consequences if it insisted on going ahead with the same year-end policy. It was obviously a beaten Prof Soludo that informed the nation of the CBN’s decision to cancel the same year-end policy as a result of what the apex bank described as observed unhealthy trend/development in the industry whereby some banks were mobilizing deposits at very high interest rates that were inconsistent with economic fundamentals which was becoming a threat to market stability.

The CBN confirmed in the public announcement that it was compelled to cancel the same year-end policy “in the light of the developments in the economy and the misplaced perception that the interest rate trends are linked to the requirement of a common year end and therefore decided that the year end will no longer be a requirement. Consequently, each bank and discount house is at liberty to adopt its own accounting year end as it deems appropriate and can inform the CBN accordingly.”

The announcement has certainly calmed the brewing storm in the sector, so it is back to business as usual. Banks will continue to declare enormous profit, banks would continue to inundate the investors with sparkling financial positions and because banks drive the national economy in an awkward inverse relation to the active sector that should, in the ordinary sense of economics, drive the national economy, banks would continue to make more money than any other sector of the economy. This is why any investor wishing to make the fast break in the stock market should now start hunting for banks’ stocks. With the exception of Unity Bank and Wema Bank that are currently on suspension, all consolidated banking stocks listed hold great prospects, principally because bankers know how to play the Nigerian economy better than any other sector player. This is a lesson in fundamental consideration in investment decision making.

WE ARE VINDICATED

Since mid-2007, we had stridently made calls for reformation of the Nigerian stock market, we had published stories of infractions that threaten the integrity of the market, we had revealed manipulative antics of some operators and their collaborators, and had asked for more pro-active monitoring and supervision of the market, especially in transactions involving moribund companies. Some had hailed our courage for revealing the truth, some had vilified us, and some did not even pay any attention to our positions. But a five-month bearish run in the market has justified our position calling on all market players to play by the rules. The roll-out of emergency measures to put in abeyance the unwholesome domination of the capital market by the bears, have justified our principled position.

Yet, the surveillance continues.

Finally! Arisekola takes control at FirstBank

Arisekola - a turban in the bank?

As published in the Sept. 28, Issue 33. Uploaded by ol’Victor Ojelabi.

Public attention, especially in the investment and banking sectors, have been riveted on Mr. Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, FirstBank Plc’s Executive Director, Risk and Management Control, whose appointment as the Managing Director-designate of FirstBank Plc was announced about two weeks ago.

For insiders of the bank, however, the board’s ratification of the appointment of Sanusi may not be without the deft hand of business mogul, Alhaji Alao Arisekola. Top level insiders confided that the elevation of Sanusi, an economist turned banker, was in consequence of a balancing act necessitated by Arisekola’s desire to further his interest in the bank.

A respected source in the bank’s senior hierarchy observed that Arisekola who holds substantial interest in FirstBank may have, by rallying the support of members of the board for the appointment of Sanusi who takes over from Mr. Moyo Ajekigbe who retires as the bank’s Managing Director in December 2008, he (Ariskola) would have positioned Dr. Ayoola Oba Otudeko, currently a non-executive director of the bank to assume the influential office of the Chairman of the Bank’s Board of Directors.

“Though FirstBank is not inclined to consider issues in appointment or other decision making process on grounds of ethnic origin or affiliation, it is obvious that a bank with the shareholding character and size of FirstBank, creating geographic balance in official appointment and occupation, may be necessary once in a while,” a source in the bank, said.

“Of course, in the appointment of Salisu, he is highly exposed to the rudiments of modern banking and therefore deserving of his designated posting, but again, don’t forget that there are other highly skilled executives in the management cadre of the bank who could have been made the Managing Director, but it would not have been appropriate in the circumstance because Alhaji Umaru Mutallab, the current Chairman of the Board of the Bank, who is of Northern Nigerian extraction like Sanusi, would also be stepping down from that capacity as soon as he attains the age of 70,” Fortune and Class Weekly source, said.

According to our source, Arisekola, who is believed to be the name behind the large shareholding indirectly held by Oba Otudeko in the bank (Otudeko holds the largest shares of the bank, 2.46 per cent, indirectly, before the bank’s May-June 2007 public offer) decided to show his hands in who becomes who in the bank’s hierarchy.

“It is natural that if he wants his man (Otudeko) who hails from the Southwest to step into the shoes of Mutallab, the office of the bank’s Managing Director must, of course, go to the North,” Fortune and Class source, reasoned.

“It’s like taking control from behind the scene which I really don’t have any problem with. The Managing Director-designate is a superb professional and has shown himself to be a worthy scholar with an active mind on public and religious issues. I tell you, this may be the next level of evolution of CEOs of large private sector holdings like FirstBank. CEOs that are not just limited to their professional callings but are willing to contribute to the debate on developmental and other ancillary issues in the country, this, I believe from my reading of Mr. Salisu, is his inclination. On the other hand, If eventually Oba Otudeko assumes the office of the board’s chairman, I am assured of a well-heeled board room giant as the corporate governance face of the bank. Now, that is like benefitting from the best of two worlds,” another Fortune and Class Weekly source said.

Meanwhile, a statement from the bank has hailed the succession plan of the bank as being a furtherance of the bank’s corporate governance practice. The statement notes that Sanusi will be understudying Ajekigbe, with a view to assuming office in a seamless manner. “As is well known, the bank’s corporate governance posture has won it much respect and awards both locally and internationally, the appointment is expected to take effect from January 1 2009.”

The new managing director is coming from a background of championing remarkable developments in the bank’s enterprise, risk and management control mechanisms. He was General Manager at United Bank for Africa Plc (UBA), where he anchored the transformation of the previous Credit Risk Management Division into an Enterprise-Risk Management sector and spearheaded UBA’s Basel 2 focus by establishing the framework, policies, processes and systems necessary for compliance with the guidelines of the new capital accord.

Sanusi graduated with a B.Sc. in Economics from Ahmadu Bello University (ABU), Zaria in 1981 and was later in the M.Sc class and started his working career in academics, teaching undergraduate Economics (1983-1985) at the Ahmadu Bello University. He then proceeded to a banking career, first with ICON Limited (merchant bankers), where in a period of about seven years he gained wide experience in Issuing House activities, Financial Advisory Services, Privatization, Debt-Conversion and Credit and Marketing, before joining UBA.

Sanusi is expected to provide reinvigorated leadership taking the bank to the next level, drawing from the vast experience of Mr. Ajekigbe, an industry icon in his own right. The seamless transition will ensure that FirstBank remains focused and maintains its leadership position in the industry.

Mr. Ajekigbe is retiring at the impressive peak of an outstanding career with FirstBank, spanning over 30 consecutive years, the last six of which he is serving meritoriously as Managing Director/Chief Executive. He has been able to stabilize the bank from the crisis situation which he inherited on his appointment in 2002, thus reinforcing the confidence of the bank’s diverse stakeholders and the global financial public.